Step One- Asset Allocation

To begin you must take a close look at your own personal financial situation and determine what your investment goals are. You must take into consideration your age, how much money you have to invest, your future financial needs and how much time you have to build your investments. A 24 year old single individual fresh out of university will need to devise a very different investment strategy than will a 45 or 50 year old married individual trying to pay off a mortgage and getting ready to send a son or daughter off to college.

You also need to consider your risk tolerance as well as your personality. Are you a big risk taker or a little one? Are you willing to invest and take the risk knowing that you could lose but could also reap greater returns or does that make you shudder inwardly? Both of these items are connected and play a role in which type of investments you should select.

Once you are aware of your present situation as well as your future requirements for capital and your risk tolerance you will then be able to decide which asset classes you should allocate for your investments. Risk/return tradeoff is the name given to the principle of the possibility of greater returns at the expense that comes with the greater risk of losses. This is different for everyone.

Are You a Conservative or Aggressive Investor?

The more risk you are willing to bear in terms of your portfolio the more aggressive investor you are. If this describes you then you should concentrate more of your attention on equities and less on bonds and other types of fixed-income securities. On the other hand, the less risk you are willing to bear, the more conservative will your portfolio be. You must define yourself as an investor.

The primary goal of a portfolio that is conservative is to protect the value of it. An example of such a portfolio includes 70 to 75 percent fixed income securities, 15 to 20 percent equities and 5 to 15 percent cash and equivalents.

An aggressive or moderately aggressive portfolio is geared towards those who have an average risk tolerance. The goal of this type of portfolio is to strike a balance between income and capital growth. It might look something like this- 50 to 55 percent equities, 35 to 40 percent fixed income securities and 5 to 10 percent cash and equivalents.

Step Two- Achieving the Portfolio You Desire

After you do what is required in step one, which is to determine the proper asset allocation for your portfolio you then need to divide the capital you have amongst the asset classes you have chosen. On a very elementary level that means breaking down bonds into the bond class and equities into the equity class, etc.

You can also take it one step further and break down asset classes into subclasses that come with different types of risks and different potential returns. For instance you might take your equities and divide them between different sectors and market caps. You also might divide them between domestic stock and foreign stock.

There is more than one way to select the assets and securities that will satisfy the asset allocation strategy you have chosen. It is important that you analyze both the potential as well as the quality of every investment before you purchase it.

Stock picking is one option. You should select stocks that are in line with the amount of risk you are willing to take in the equity section of your investment portfolio. Consider such factors as stock type, market cap and sector. Make use of stock screeners to analyze companies and then create a shortlist of your top choices. If you go this route then you must regularly monitor the price changes that occur in your holdings as well as to keep up-to-date on the latest news in the industry.

Bond picking is another option. When selecting bonds consider such important things as the bond type, the bond rating, coupon, maturity and the general interest rate environment.

As far as mutual funds are concerned, be aware that they are available for a vast range of asset classes. Mutual funds make it possible for you as an investor to have both stocks as well as bonds that are well researched and chosen by professional fund managers.

If you do not wish to invest your money in mutual funds then exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are another alternative worth considering. ETFS are comparable to mutual funds that can be traded like stocks. They represent a large assortment of stocks that are generally grouped together by capitalizations, sector and country. However ETFs are not actively managed but what they do instead is they track a chosen index or other assortments of stocks. ETFs can cover a wide range of assortment classes and are an excellent means of rounding out a portfolio.

Step Three- Taking the Time to Reassess Portfolio Weightings

After your portfolio has been established it then becomes time to analyze and rebalance it on a periodic basis. You need to do this because movements in the market can sometimes cause the initial weightings you have to change. In order to assess the actual asset allocation of your portfolio you need to quantitively categorize all of your investments as well as to figure out the value proportions in relation to the whole.

Over time other things can change as well. Your financial situation can change as well as your future need for capital and your risk tolerance. These things can change at different times throughout an investor’s life. When any of these things become altered you need to adjust your portfolio to reflect these changes. For example, if your risk tolerance has gotten lower then you may have to reduce the number of equities you have.

To rebalance your portfolio you must figure out which of the positions you hold are overweighted and which are underweighted. To use an example, if 30 percent of your current assets are in small-cap equities and your asset allocation says that you should have approximately 15 percent of your assets in this class then you need to rebalance. When you rebalance you take a close look at your position and from there figure out what you need to reduce and what needs to be allocated to different classes.

Step Four- Doing a Strategic Rebalancing Act

By the time you reach this step you know which securities you require and which ones need to be reduced and by how much the reduction must be. You also know which securities are overweighted and underweighted.

When you decide to sell some of your assets in order to rebalance your portfolio consider the tax implications this brings with it. You also need to consider what the outlook of your investment securities are. If you have reason to believe that you have overweighted growth stocks that are about to drop then it might be in your best interests to sell some of them even if the tax implications say otherwise. To gauge the outlook it helps to look to research reports as well as listen to the opinions of financial analysts.

Investment Diversification Matters

Always bear in mind this rule of thumb for building a profitable portfolio- diversify as much as possible. If you don’t put all of your eggs in one basket then you are in a much stronger position investment wise. Always maintain diversification. Having securities from each asset class is important but it is not enough. Instead you must diversify within each asset class. Take the holdings you have in an asset class of your choice and spread them across a variety of subclasses as well as sectors of industries.

To achieve the diversification you need to be as profitable as possible and to see your money grow it is wise to use both mutual funds as well as exchange-traded fund (ETFs). These will make it possible for you as an individual and average investor to see the economies of scale that characterize large fund investors.

Depending on the performance of an individual stock your potential return could double or could quickly become worthless. Volatility then defines the degree to which a value of an investment tends to fluctuate over time.

One basic principle of investing for the beginner or the veteran stock picker, risk and volatility go hand in hand with investment returns, the higher the risk, the higher its volatility and potential returns. Investments with high risk and volatility have a greater chance of losing value is held over shorter periods of time, say less than five years. The effect or chance of a stock increasing in value over longer periods of time worked the same way.

Risk tolerance is defined by the amount of risk that you, the individual investor, are willing to withstand and be comfortable with in your investments. Not identifying what kind of risk tolerance you possess can surely lead to investing disaster.

Determining your risk tolerance is easy once you identify two very important factors. They are your time horizon for your investments, essentially how long you plan to hold your investments, and your personal response to risk. That means, what decision are you likely to make when you’re investment loses 15% in a day.

Obviously the longer you can hold your investment the more risk tolerance you are able to withstand. The longer period of time keep you from making hasty decisions over short-term ups and downs in the price of your stock. Longer-term can be defined as 10 years or more. Investors with moderate time horizons, say 5 to 10 years generally have moderate risk tolerance and should invest in growth and income by investing in stocks, bonds and cash equivalents.

Investors were shorter time horizons one to five years generally have low risk tolerance should invest almost entirely for income by buying bonds and cash equivalents. There is some correlation between risk tolerance and age however, that doesn’t apply across the board to everyone. Identifying your personal response to risk should include an examination about how you feel personally about taking risk in losing money. If you avoid risk in everyday life chances are you should avoid it in your investment strategy.

For example if you worry on a daily basis, that will easily trans-late into worrying about your stock investments. If you enjoy risk and don’t worry easily you should feel comfortable investing for growth or trading options online assuming you have a longer time horizon.

One of the best ways to identify how you will respond to market fluctuations and risk is to own a stock. Let’s say an issue at $20 per share. Over three months the stock appreciates and gains four dollars a share to $24. You begin by feeling pretty good about yourself having picked the winner and you are enjoying a nice gain. Now, through no fault of your own, earnings start to come out by companies related to the industry of your stock. Since they are not good your stock loses eight dollars per share over four days. Ask yourself this question, how would you react in that situation? If you can answer this question and answer this question truthfully you are on your way to identifying your investing risk and risk tolerance factors. Not everyone is comfortable trading in Forex Mini Accounts, and not everyone wants to trade in bonds. Everyone fits in somewhere, find your place and you will be a much happier investor

The markets just keep getting disappointing news.

This past week a bunch of banks reported worse than expected earnings and loan losses that are still growing. Bank of America saying they will possibly need billions more in aid from the Federal Government. Then besides all of Thain’s earlier missteps, came the revelation this past week that he spent 1.2 million redecorating his office!! All I could do was shake my head in utter disbelief. What’s 1.2 million when the company (Bank of America) that your are second in command of is getting Billions of dollars of taxpayer money from the Federal Government.

Microsoft released a disappointing earnings report and because of the market volatility they are unable to provide guidance for revenue or EPS (earnings per share) for the rest of the year.

Then there was a decline GDP(Gross Domestic Product) in Q4 for both China and the UK. This means that growth is slowing which is a bad thing.

To top it off housing starts fell to an annualized rate of 550 thousand units, the lowest on record going back to 1959. Initial jobless claims jumped back up to 589 thousand, which is a 26 year high.

Another ponzie scheme was discovered in California. Approximately 1000 people lost 52 million dollars.

Should I keep going on or just quit now? There is just no good news out there.

If the government announces plans to create a bad bank, that’s a bank that buys all the toxic loans from the troubled banks to get the loans off their books, that might put a floor in the financial markets and turn things around. It’s an idea that has been kicked around. We’ll have to wait and see.

Back on November 7th I wrote in my Stock Market Updates “Obama plans to raise the amount of federal money spent on science and technology research, to spur innovation and job creation. He will be seeking approval to spend 150 billion dollars over the next 10 years on clean energy technologies, and 10 billion a year over the next five years on healthcare information systems. He has pledged to double federal funding for basic research in science and technology, this includes embryonic stem cell research.”  As bad as the market has been the last few weeks, stem cell biotechs and healthcare stocks have been moving up. Geron’s announcement this past week about starting stem cell trials in humans for spinal cord injuries really caused a move. Keep in mind it is only a 10 person trial and it’s many years from being marketed. I am not recommending that you go and invest in these stocks, do you own research and investigation. These are sectors to keep your eyes on.

Some economic events this week are:
Existing home sales Jan 26th
Consumer confidence Jan. 27th
Durable goods orders Jan. 29th
Jobless claims Jan. 29th
None of which I expect to be good or surprise us with better than expected numbers.

As always whether you are long or short may all of your trades be profitable!!

Becky

First off beware of days where the market rallies. Changing the direction of this market will take more than a day or two of positive gains. A novice can look at a stock chart right now and spot a trend. Trust what your eyes see. In her Weekly Stock Market Updates Becky Smith accurately predicted lower lows recently, and we may be headed lower.

The Sidelines Is Not A Bad Place to Be

There are times when holding cash is a good thing. Consider at least for now paper trading stocks. This is a great opportunity for you to hone your trading skills. Stocks that reach new lows more often that not go lower and trying to find a bottom on individual stocks can prove costly.

Watch The News

This market is being driven by news. Look at what happened to the market late Friday when word leaked out of a new cabinet member for President Elect Obama. His likely choice for Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner rallied the market on that news. Will that be a sustained rally?

Patience, Patience and More Patience

This market will call for investors to be patient beyond what has been normal. The markets will turn around. They always do. However, beware of misleading signals. In the end there will buying opportunities. Watch what the institutions do and follow their lead. It is a time for bears , but the bulls will reappear.